06/06/2007 7:17 PM ET
Mayo chats with fans on eve of Draft
Draft expert shares his opinions on selections
Asked about top speed in the Draft, Jonathan Mayo mentioned Gary Brown, Julio Borbon when healthy, and Ben Revere.
Draft expert Jonathan Mayo fielded questions on the eve of the First-Year Player Draft from fans anxious to get the inside scoop. Mayo shared his opinions on where David Price, Rick Porcello, Jarrod Parker and many more will be selected.
Hello, everyone from Orlando, Fla.! We're less than 24 hours away from the announcement of the first pick and the setup here is amazing. Let's get chatting, shall we?
Hello, Jonathan. A lot of talk is going on about the obvious pitchers like David Price and Rick Porcello. What are your thoughts and thoughts of scouts on Jarrod Parker. I've talked to Jim Callis of Baseball America and he seems to think he matches up really well.
He definitely does match up stuff-wise to just about any pitcher, particularly from the high school ranks. The one thing that puts him behind is his size. Scouts always get a little nervous about undersized right-handers.
Any whispers on who the Phillies are after at No. 19?
Plenty of whispers, no solid answers. And that's the case with anyone picking after the top pick, to be honest. There are a number of players they could be looking at, from catcher Devin Mesoraco to outfielder Julio Borbon, if he's around. A college bat like Todd Frazier could be a possibility, as well.
I saw in your blog that you now expect Porcello to go past pick No. 2. Is there any chance the Cubs pick him because of the good luck they've had with Scott Boras?
Virtually no chance. On ability, Porcello belongs in the conversation right at the top. But he's priced himself out of consideration for many teams, including the Cubs. Where he eventually lands may be one of the more intriguing side-stories of this Draft.
Who is the fastest player in the Draft?
Some say it's Gary Brown out in California. From a college standpoint, it might be Borbon when healthy. But if you're going to go pure speed on the baseball field right now, a lot of people say Ben Revere, a high school outfielder from Kentucky, is your guy.
John, Cards at No. 18. Choose one ... Matthew Harvey, Joshua Smoker, Madison Bumgarner, Kevin Ahrens or Matthew Dominguez?
Can I go off the board for potent potables? I don't think they take any of them. Not that they're completely unwilling to take a high school guy, but I think a college player is much more likely in that spot.
Is Pittsburgh looking hard at Mesoroco?
They're looking, but I don't know that they're looking hard at this point. Obviously, it certainly is easier for them to have the decision-makers scout him since he's so close geographically.
But right now, I think Mesoraco is not at the top of their list ... he's probably a backup option for a number of teams, starting with the Pirates at No. 4 and working down.
Where do you see these Illinois guys going in the Draft? Casey Crosby, Tyler Newsome, Seth Blair, Brett Zawacki, Mike Recchia, Cody Scarpetta?
I'm going to reach out for some help on this one, with Perfect Game USA's David Rawnsley on hand ... he'll be on the ESPN2 broadcast and will join me and Casey Stern for MLB.com's show at 6:30 p.m. ET. David, your thoughts?
This has been a banner year for Illinois high school prospects ... you can add left-handed pitcher T.J. McFarland and southpaw John Flanagan to that list as well. I think Crosby will be the first one picked, probably in the 40th-50th (comp) area.
Seth Blair has also been talked about in that area by some clubs. I really like what I've heard late about Newsome. He has an excellent bat and could be a Draft day surprise.
Thanks, David ... always nice to have such a deep bullpen to go to.
Hey, Jonathan. Do you see the Nats going high school pitching in this Draft (Parker, Porcello) or will they grab someone like Matt Wieters or Jason Heyward?
A lot depends on what happens above them. They like Mike Moustakas and they'll talk about Wieters. In the end, I think they'll go college arm if they want a pitcher. Think Ross Detwiler or Daniel Moskos.
Hey, Jonathan. The Blue Jays have two first-round picks at Nos. 16 and 21 overall. So far I've been hearing a lot about high school position players like Dominguez and Ahrens, and big college bats like Matthew Laporta and Beau Mills. Is this still what your hearing?
Yes, more or less. I think they showed last year that if the right high school player was there, they wouldn't hesitate (and Travis Snider can hit a little). There are some high school hitters who fit in realm. The guys you mentioned could fit, as could Peter Kozma.
In an ideal world, maybe they'd mix in a college arm with the high school bat, but there probably won't be one they'd really like to take when they pick.
Jon, is there any chance the Reds take Porcello?
None. Zach also asked about them taking a bat like Ahrens over an available pitcher and whether that was a mistake. It's not a mistake if the right bat is there.
They are a team that could use a college arm that could get there fast, but there's a dropoff after the top guys go off the board. If I'm the Reds, I take the high school bat over the high school arm.
Please don't tell me that the Rockies are seriously considering drafting Nicholas Schmidt at No. 8. Why don't they go after a high ceiling player such as Porcello or Detwiler (if they fall) or a toolsy player such as Heyward?
OK, I won't tell you. Step away from your computer for a few minutes.
Everyone else ... yes, they are considering Schmidt. I think they'd consider Detwiler, but he won't be there. Porcello won't be an option for the same reason he won't be taken up ahead of them.
Heyward's name has been attached to the Rockies, but they do have some players like that in their system. Why not take a guy like Schmidt, who pitches down in the zone and will get to Colorado in a hurry.
OK, you can come back now.
Who do you think the Yankees will take in the first round?
It's hard in any year to project No. 30 and this year may be the toughest. That being said, I think there's a chance you could put one of the "signability" guys who slides to them. Porcello? Maybe. Harvey? Could be. Andrew Brackman? That would be intriguing.
Do the Marlins keep stockpiling arms with their pick at No. 12 or do they look for a bat like Heyward?
Could be either, but my last projection had them taking Borbon. Not drafting for need, but it doesn't hurt that they could use a leadoff center fielder type.
Of the following pitchers, which have shown the characteristics that translate into being most effective in the bigs, Porcello, Parker, Detwiler, Phillippe Aumont, or Moskos?
Based on pure ability alone, right now, I'd pick Porcello. He's got stuff plus command, plus a projectable frame that suggests his plus stuff could get even better. Each of those guys have the ability to be big-league pitchers. Some will take longer than others. Ask me that question again in five years.
Who do you think the Padres will be looking at with the No. 23 pick in the Draft? They don't need pitching but if there is some quality pitching available will they go with that? Do you think that there will be some quality bats left at No. 23?
There will be some quality bats left and you could see some college position players sneak up to them now. Right now, I've got James Simmons in their spot, a college pitcher from University of California Riverside. They'd have some interest in USF's Aaron Poreda should he be there.
The chances of Phillippe Aumont being picked by the Blue Jays?
Very slim. I can't imagine Aumont will still be there at pick No. 16.
Will Dominguez be around for the Jays at No. 16? Will they take him if he is?
He could be, and they might. How's that for definitive?
Hey, Jon, you must feel like a kid on Christmas Eve.
I'm Jewish, so it's more of a Hanukkah feel for me, but you've got the emotions right.
Do you see Heyward as a capable first baseman or is he going to be an outfielder?
I think he profiles best as a corner outfielder -- a guy who has the arm to play right field and should develop the power to profile at that position.
Is there any way the Marlins take Wieters if he falls to No. 12? I know he is a Boras guy and the Marlins are cheap, but they have spent money on picks in the past and catcher is really the only position they don't have a good young player.
If the Marlins take Wieters at 12, I'll shave my head ... oh wait.
The Draft does not seem strong for college players, does that mean that some high school players will move up the board?
You would think that. And there will be a fair share of high school players taken in the first round. But what often happens is that as teams line things up and start to figure out who's there for them, more teams than you'd think will go for the "safer" college pick.
As a result, you'll see some of the college position players in particular -- for example, Todd Frazier, Sean Doolittle -- sneaking into the first round when everyone had them pegged as comp picks earlier.
What's the latest on the Indian's short list? Any chance they would take Heyward?
I haven't heard them being on Heyward at all. Blake Beavan is still the guy I have in their slot and I'll leave him there, I think. I'll have my last projection up on the site late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
What do the Brewers do at No. 7? I hope they don't pick anymore high school pitchers. They don't do well developing pitchers and keeping them healthy. Have you heard any rumors?
Well, the one rumor you wouldn't like would be about Parker, the high school pitcher from Indiana. Or how about Aumont, the high schooler from Canada? They're also looking at college arms.
In the end, they need to wait to see how things shake out ahead of them (which is still very much up in the air) before they can narrow it down.
With the Royals possibly throwing a real curve at No. 2, how do you see the top 10 playing out?
Now, now, I can't tip my hand yet -- check out my projections later tonight.
Where will Brett Cecil go?
I say comp round. I suppose there's an outside chance he sneaks into the first, but for a guy who won't close at the next level, I think a sandwich pick makes sense.
Any chance that pitcher from Canada lasts until the Brewers pick at No. 7?
Yup, I think there's a chance. If he doesn't go No. 5 to the Orioles, that could be his next possibility.
Are the Mariners locked on getting a college arm that can come quick?
It does seem that way. And a reliever like Casey Weathers does fit that description. That being said, it'd be interesting to see what they do if a Wieters is staring at them still on the board.
How cool is it that the Draft is finally going to be televised? You may become the next Mel Kiper of MLB.
I don't have the hair.
What round do you think Smoker will go?
I think he's a first-rounder. Where in the first round is hard to place. He's been mentioned as high as the middle of the round. Worst-case, he ends up in the comp round.
Where do you see Andrew Brackman, Joe Savery and Cole St. Clair going?
All very interesting guys to consider.
Brackman may very well fall out of the first round completely, though the Yankees would be an interesting consideration. I think Savery probably goes in the sandwich round and, between you and me, whoever gets him is going to get a steal at that point. St. Clair is sandwich-second round for me.
Where do you think Matt Harvey (Fitch High School in Conn.) will go?
Later stages of the first round, at best. Part of it is signability, and some think the Rangers will take him with one of their picks. But I've also heard from some scouts that he just hasn't performed as well this spring as he did last summer.
Josh Horton of Univ. of North Carolina -- projected round and Major League position?
I'll say second round, utility guy.
If you had to put a percentage on it what would you put as the odds that Mesoraco ends up with the Pirates?
Sorry, too many Buccos questions, but I do live in Pittsburgh ... I'd say 15 percent.
I heard Parker hit 99 yesterday and is now going to the Royals?
I did hear that he saved his best for last, so to speak. And I also heard that the Royals had some brass at the game. But as of right now, he's not the guy I'd put in their spot at No. 2.
Who has the most power in the Draft?
If you want to talk right now power, Mills is at, or near the top of that list. Wieters has some serious pop as well. High school-wise, you've got Moustakas, Heyward, Michael Burgess (raw, huge projection) to name a few.
Why isn't Matt Mangini being talked about in the first round? He definitely handled the wood bat well last summer.
He did handle the bat well last summer, but that was last summer. He did not handle the bat well for much of this season, falling into some bad habits with metal. Someone will take him, sure they'll get him back to the guy with wood, but there's concern about him switching his approach.
I'm going to give a five-minute warning, guys. Time for a few more questions.
Jon, do you think the White Sox take a chance and take Burgess?
No, not a chance. He's not a first-rounder.
Where do you see the boys from California's powerhouse Chatsworth going?
Both Moustakas and Dominguez will be first-rounders. Moustakas will go in the top 10, without a doubt. Dominguez is a little harder to place, but I think he's more of a middle of the round guy right now.
Is there a Tim Lincecum type guy in this Draft that teams will take looking for immediate impact?
There isn't a starter with that kind of stuff who could get there that fast, unless you want to count Price. Schmidt should get there fast. Other than that, think college relievers. Weathers probably could get some people out right now.
Who goes next out of Arizona preps after Alderson ... Kevin Rhoderick or Devin Fuller?
I'll say Rhoderick.
Hey Jonathan, are teams looking at Mills as a third baseman or first baseman in the Draft?
The answer to that one is ... bat.
Seriously, that's the issue with him. Some think he doesn't really have a defensive home and is more at home as a DH in the AL.
Last question, folks.
So, any chance that the O's will take either Wieters or Porcello
I think there's a chance on Wieters, no chance on Porcello.
Guys, I have to wrap it up. Thanks for all of the questions. Sorry I couldn't get to more. Be sure to check out my last projection late tonight and check out all of our Draft coverage on MLB.com tomorrow. Thanks!