NewsInbox: Is a winning percentage within reach?
Beat reporter Marty Noble answers fans' questions
By Marty Noble / MLB.com
10/27/09 3:23 PM ET
Having lived through -- and enjoyed -- some horrible years as a Mets fan, I don't understand the panic that has set in because of the current circumstances: "Fire the manager" and "Fire the owner." Yes, they stunk this year. But looking ahead, what's not to love about Jeff Francoeur; Johan Santana; K-Rod in the ninth; a reasonably healthy Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, John Maine and David Wright; and the Shake Shack burgers at Citi Field? Sure, bring in a new-look free agent or two. The addition of just one Rusty Staub made the Mets respectable in the 1970s. We'll likely creep over .500 and vie for the National League Wild Card, don't you think?-- Sandy N., Cornwall, Conn.
I appreciate independent thinking. And if you recall Rusty's impact, you probably also recall a time when fans were disappointed -- and not angered -- by poor performance by their teams. But the drive-time alarmist and their disciples have changed all that.
From the tone of most of my mail, your point of view is decidedly less than universal in the Mets' world. Put the 1972 Rusty in left and in the middle of the order for 2010, and several problems would be solved. I know people will question his speed in the Citi Field outfield, but few outfielders ever played as intelligently as Le Grand Orange.
I think a .500 winning percentage is well within the Mets' reach next season if they have health and add a legitimate catcher, a No. 2 starter and some power. And, on average, the difference between .500 and a Wild Card berth in the National League in the past 10 years has been merely 11 victories or so. But at this point, with so much to be addressed and all the uncertainty caused by injury, 91 victories seems a tad ambitious. It is late October, though. There is room -- and time -- for improvement.
Because it's unlikely that the Mets will make a ton of deals to fix all their holes, I am an advocate of this plan: Sign a decent catcher to go along with Omir Santos -- anybody but Brian Schneider; keep the Draft picks to see if they can jump-start the rebuilding of the farm system; leave Josh Thole, Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada and Fernando Martinez in Triple-A for the entire 2010 season and allow their confidence to increase; make Jon Niese the fifth starter; send Oliver Perez to Triple-A and forget about him unless he turns things around.
Then, only if the team performs well during this season, should they make a deal to bring in expensive "win now" players. If their primary players -- Wright and Rodriguez excluded -- don't perform up to their abilities, trade them and build toward a major run in 2011 and 2012.
The one thing I can't take is losing without a purpose. If there is a plan toward having young talent that eventually will play in a World Series, then I am for it.
-- Chane D., Mount Vernon, N.Y.
I like your sense of patience and the general direction of your thinking, and I sense that some of what you advocate is likely to happen. The Mets have been impressed by Davis and Thole but know that each needs more seasoning. They want Niese to be in the rotation, and I sense they know Martinez needs time. They think enough of Davis at this point that they probably won't import any first-base talent that would block his path to the big leagues.
Wright is going nowhere, and they're not about to deal K-Rod unless a Jonathan Papelbon/Mariano Rivera hybrid walks into to camp in February and says he'll pitch for free. Don't expect trades involving Beltran or Reyes.
The Mets are looking for a catcher, and Bengie Molina, Rod Barajas and Yorvit Torrealba (if he becomes a free agent) are on their list. But I don't think you'll get your wish about Perez -- too much money and too much potential win out over too many walks. He'll be afforded another opportunity.
I read your reports all the time and agree with your opinions. Being a Mets fan literally my entire life, I have been through a roller-coaster ride. Please give your insight about when we actually have a shot at the World Series. Also, I am really interested in what you have to say about what free agents we actually have a chance of getting this offseason. Thanks from one of your biggest fans.
-- Daniel S., Tenafly, N.J.
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I believe I wrote about this at some point last week. My sense of the Mets from 2010 through the subsequent two or three seasons isn't that the level of success you seek -- playing in the postseason -- won't be readily achieved. The Mets are likely to perform at a higher level next season if only because it's all but impossible that they will endure as many serious injuries. Moreover, it is all but a given that greater emphasis on playing the game properly and intelligently will be evident in Spring Training and thereafter.
But the Phillies are a force. They have dynamic talent at three positions, at least one dynamic starter -- two, if Cole Hamels pitches to his capacity -- and Jimmy Rollins, a Mark Lemke-tough guy with far more talent. They have genuine resolve and the kind of arrogance a team develops when it succeeds. I see in the Phillies what I saw in the Yankees from 1998 to 2000, the Yankees of the late 1970s, the Reds of the mid-'70s and the A's of the early 1970s. And I think I see the 2009 World Series champions in the Phillies, too (six games).
The Mets will be hard-pressed to match the Phillies for a while unless they bring in special talent that meshes as the Phillies' has. The Braves have passed the Mets, and the Marlins appear to have done so as well, but not by too great a margin.
Will the Mets ever consider doing away with their black uniform tops? To put it simply, they are ugly and not practical. The look of the original Mets has been taken away. That needs to return. And in the summer, it is too hot to play in black uniforms.
-- Glenn Z., Sarasota Springs, N.Y.
The black tops are actually cooler, the players say. I'd prefer the original uniforms, too, but the call is neither yours nor mine.
Marty Noble is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
