NewsSecond-half history in Johan's favor
New York (42-47) at Atlanta (45-45), 4:00 p.m. ET
By Marty Noble / MLB.com
07/18/09 1:38 AM ET
ATLANTA -- A sense of anticipation may develop Saturday before the Mets engage the Braves for the third time in a four-game series. It may be prompted simply by the identity of the Mets' starting pitcher. Johan Santana has the assignment. And those with a sense of his career are likely to be curious about whether he will continue the pattern he has established over the years.A brilliant pitcher by almost any measure, Santana is a remarkably successful pitcher after the All-Star break. A victory this afternoon in his 19th start this season would put his second-half winning percentage at .776, his record after the break at 59-17.
As it stands now, Santana's post-All-Star break ranks among the best. His current percentage, .773, is the highest among all pitchers with at least 75 starts after the break. And his ERA in those appearances, 2.70, is the eighth lowest all-time among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings after the break, sixth highest among those with at least 700 innings.
Now that Santana is to make his first post-break start this season, what can be expected? He faces the Braves in a game carried by FOX. The team of Thom Brennaman, Eric Karros and Ken Rosenthal will present the game. What will they see?
Last season, his first with the Mets, Santana was merely perfect after the break. He made 15 starts, lost none and won eight. The Mets won four of his seven no-decisions, and his ERA in the three games they lost was 2.11. His ERA for the 15 starts was actually higher, 2.17.
So what can be expected? Since he was battered by the Brewers in his last start in June, Santana has split two starts, losing the first to the Phillies, though he allowed merely three hits in seven innings. And in his most recent start, against the Dodgers last week at Citi Field, he pitched seven scoreless innings.
Were those performances for the post-All-Star-break push? Try to answer that, and one nagging statistic comes up, one developed by the Elias Sports Bureau that speaks to the more modest results Santana has produced, beginning in June. In his first 10 starts -- he has a 7-2 record and a 1.77 ERA -- he achieved swings and misses on 15.4 percent of his pitches, a high ratio. In eight starts since that sequence, swings and misses have come on 9.1 percent of his pitches.
His combined June-July numbers include a 3-5 record and 4.83 record. But now, the All-Star Game has passed.
Pitching matchup
NYM: LHP Johan Santana (10-7, 3.09 ERA)
Santana's seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers were the foundation for the Mets' sixth shutout this season. He allowed a walk, three singles and two doubles and struck out five. He has been the starter in three of the Mets' six shutouts this season, pitching seven innings each time, and in six of their 10 most recent shutouts. He pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Braves at Citi Field on May 11 in a game the Mets won, 8-3. He lost his only two decisions against them last season despite a 2.57 ERA in three starts (21 innings). Matt Diaz (10-for-18), Brian McCann (5-for-16), Yunel Escobar (5-for-12) and Chipper Jones (5-for-11) are batting .438 in 57 composite at-bats against Santana. ATL: RHP Kenshin Kawakami (5-6, 4.26 ERA)
The Braves have won five of Kawakami's seven most recent starts. The right-hander has won two, lost none and produced a 3.62 ERA in the seven games. Home runs have been a problem, as he has allowed five in his most recent 37 1/3 innings. Kawakami has a 3.52 ERA in eight starts at Turner Field, one of the eight coming against the Mets on May 5. He allowed two runs in five innings and emerged as the losing pitcher. Oddly, right-handed hitters have a significantly higher slugging average (.491) than left-handed hitters (.392).
This date in Mets history -- July 18: The Mets completed a 48-hour, four-game sweep of the Astros on this date in 1966. They swept a doubleheader from the Astros, winning 4-1 and 6-3 at Shea Stadium. They had swept Houston the previous day as well. ... Three years later, Jerry Koosman put his record at 8-5 by pitching a complete game victory against the Expos at Parc Jarry. Koosman, who would finish the season with a 17-9 record. Art Shamsky and Jerry Grote hit home runs in the 5-2 victory.
On July 18, 1982, Wally Backman hit the second of his three home runs that season in an 8-3 Mets victory at Dodger Stadium. Backman would hit seven more home runs in his subsequent 11 seasons. ... Sid Fernandez (seven innings), Jeff Innis and Randy Myers combined to pitch a four-hitter in the Mets' 9-0 victory against the Astros at Shea on this date in 1989. ... Al Leiter (six innings), Greg McMichael and Dennis Cook combined on a three-hitter in the Mets' 7-0 victory against the Phillies at Shea on this date in 1998. Mike Piazza hit two home runs and drove in three runs. ... And on this date in 2001, a double by Tsuyoshi Shinjo scored Joe McEwing in the 11th inning to produce a 4-3 Mets victory against the Marlins at Shea Stadium.
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• WFAN 660, WADO 1280 (Español) Up next
• Sunday: Mets (Fernando Nieve, 3-3, 3.03) at Braves (Javier Vazquez, 6-7, 2.95), 6:00 p.m. ET
• Monday: Mets (Livan Hernandez, 5-5, 5.10) at Nationals (TBD), 7:05 p.m. ET
• Tuesday: Mets (Oliver Perez, 2-2, 7.99) at Nationals (TBD), 7:05 p.m. ET
Marty Noble is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
